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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-02T17:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-02T17:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46569/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-06-02T17:23Z. The CME is not clearly seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES CCOR-1 as it is likely obscured by the occulting disk. The source of this event is an M3.3 class flare from Active Region 14455 (N13W05) which peaked at 2026-06-02T16:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Opening field lines and dimming are also observed in association with this flare in SDO AIA 171, 193 and 211 with the dimming and opening facing Southward, likely indicating some Southern deflection.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46571/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-02T17:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=672.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2026-06-02T21:38Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-05T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-07T02:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-06T06:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-07T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260602_213800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 58.35 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2026-06-02T21:39Z

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